Summerville, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

342
FXUS62 KCHS 191741
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
141 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All Key Messages and sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Quiet weather and warming temperatures into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Quiet weather and warming temperatures through
the weekend.

Dry high pressure will extend across the region through this
weekend. A weak shortwave embedded in the northwest flow aloft
is progged to pass through late Saturday afternoon/evening. This
feature as the potential to generate a few showers, mainly to
the north across the Midlands and Pee Dee. Locally, conditions
look too dry to support anything meaningful. No mentionable
pops were included as a result. Temperatures will steadily
moderate through the period, reaching well above normal levels
by Saturday and continuing into Monday. Highs could breach the
90 degree mark across mainly interior Southeast Georgia both
Sunday and Monday afternoons.

A strong backdoor cold front will push south Monday night/early
Tuesday morning ushering in cooler conditions for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Above normal temperatures should return for Thursday.
Models have trended a bit drier with the front Monday owing to
very little meaningful moisture return ahead of it. Pops were
lowered slightly from the previous forecast consistent with the
19/13z NBM. Breezy conditions could develop Monday night into
Tuesday at the coast with modest cold air advection occurring
behind the front and a distinct pinching of the pressure
gradient noted across the coastal waters.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
19/18z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 20/18z. A controlled burn in the
Naval Weapons Station could bring smoke in the KCHS through
about 20z. Transport winds should diminish and back more north
which would then end risk for smoke at the terminal.

Extended Aviation Outlook: There are no high confidence
concerns.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight: Northeast winds will persist tonight with
speeds averaging 5-10 kt nearshore waters and 10-15 kt over the
Georgia offshore waters. Seas will remain in the 4-6 ft range
over the Georgia offshore waters through 06z and a Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect.

Friday through Tuesday: The biggest concern is centered on
Monday night into Tuesday in the wake of a backdoor cold front.
The combination of modest cold air advection and a pinching of
the pressure gradient will support a strong northeast wind event
with speeds likely reaching as high as 20-30 kt with gusts to
gale force. Small Craft Advisories will needed and possibly Gale
Watches/Warnings for some marine legs.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Friday for AMZ374.

&&

$$